For over a decade now this author have repeatedly expressed that the ultimate goal the Tigray People’s Liberation Front is to break away from Ethiopia and declare independent Abay Tigray by invoking Article 39 of Ethiopian constitution which unequivocally states:
“Every nation, nationality or people in Ethiopia shall have the unrestricted right to self determination up to secession.”
On June 29 Ethiopian Satellite Television Service (ESAT) reported,
“Residents in Lafto Sub City of the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa (Kersa Kontuma neighborhood) clashed with the regime loyal police forces in attempt to protect their houses from demolition. People are posting pictures of deceased police officer bodies on Social Media. The police officers believed to be killed during the clash with protesters.
Some says the casualty figures could be 10 to 17 police officers.”
Two weeks after Eritrea accused the TPLF of military aggression ESAT news reported,
“The TPLF regime in Ethiopian has been moving its army and heavy military equipment in large numbers to the north of the country, Acording to eyewitness accounts. The witnesses said public transport buses, as per the instructions given by the regime, have been transporting large numbers of the army from south and central regions of the country to the north.”
This is move is peculiar because as Mr. Neamin Zeleke on his latest piece, “The Myth of a stable Ethiopia under a Minority Regime” wrote, the army and the people need be on the same page for the army to succeed on all its endeavors.
Clearly, the people of Ethiopia and the TPLF army are not in the same page and that is the reason why the residents in Lafo city in Addis Ababa killed soldiers loyal to the TPLF. This happened because the people of Ethiopia have now concluded, without a shadow of doubt that the TPLF is not in any way representative of their interests. Furthermore, they have concluded that there is no institution that they can go to and express their grievances effectively.
What this means is that what the TPLF seeded is coming to fruition. The division between the people and the TPLF organ and its army is real. The people are certain now that the TPLF army is not there to protect but harm them. As a result the people are forced to take measures in their own hands to protect their lives and livelihood as in this case. They are raising arms to fight against TPLF. People are running away from authorities even when they are desperately in need of medical attention.
This demonstrates that seeds for civil war are planted by the TPLF and the likelihood that it could spread like wild fire is as real as daylight. Absent of urgent intervention by Washington there is absolutely nothing that can stop this runaway train.
The question, does the TPLF leadership understand the gravity of the situation?
People were concerned when they heard that the TPLF is moving soldiers close to Eritrean borders, rightly. Their fear is legitimate however, this time, it must be clear to the world that the TPLF is running back to Tigray not readying for war against Eritrea. War against Eritrea will destroy them.
For the last 25 years the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) have been busy making enemies with Afars, Gambella, Ogaden, Amhara, Oromia, Wekait, Somalia and every ethnic group. They have picked a fight with the very country that gave them notoriety and legitimacy, Eritrea.
To pursue US’s interest TPLF cutoff relations with every constituency in the region. With the belief that the US cannot pursue its interests without the TPLF in the region, TPLF wrongly undermined every constituency.
This approach has a very short shelf life. In order to succeed the TPLF needed to succeed by ensuring the regime change agenda and destabilization of Eritrea. Controlling Eritrea would have made controlling the rest of Ethiopia easier. That however, was a tall order. As is evident now the TPLF failed to control Ethiopia and its Eritrea agenda is no longer possible.
The TPLF criminals that have been pillaging Ethiopia and created tremendous hardship in the region have finally come to realize that their time is up and they are running back to their original base of Tigray.
Therefore, the troop movement back has nothing to do with initiating war against Eritrea. It is self protection and move towards Article 39, Greater (Abay) Tigray. It is to protect their interests from their bases in Tigray.
The TPLF has been disconnected from the people of Tigray for a long time. However, recent developments in Ethiopia have reignited their interest because their very lives are at stake and they have nowhere else to go but Tigray.
Of late there has been tremendous PR moves directed at the people of Tigray designed to re-entice their base’s support. July 2, 2016 ESAT news reported, the TPLF has built a Peugeot car assembly plant in Wikro Ketema in Tigray. It further noted that the TPLF established a pharmaceutical company worth one Billion Birr in Adi Grat.
“Chief executive Officer of the Endowment Fund for the Rehabilitation of Tigray (EFFORT), Azeb Mesfun said the manufacturing sector has a significant contribution to achieve Ethiopia’s target of becoming a middle income country by 2025.”
EFFORT is abbreviation for Endowment Fund for the Rehabilitation of Tigray. Yet, the wife of the late dictator Meles Zenawi Azeb Mesfun claims that, “The manufacturing sector has a significant contribution to achieve Ethiopia’s target of becoming a middle income country by 2025.” Emphasis is added. However, Azeb is trying to reestablish her base in Tigray In the name of Ethiopia.
The TPLF invested heavily in Oromia and other parts of Ethiopia to loot. That however was short lived and dangerous. Because when people resisted the TPLF went on a killing spree everywhere living no room for any good will. As a result the people of Ethiopia have rejected the regime everywhere. The TPLF has no place inside Ethiopia and has no where else to go but Tigray. Hence, the TPLF is making a last ditch effort to hanker down in Tigray. It will declare article 39 and try to mend fences with Eritrea. Will this become a saving grace for the dying regime?
No, they will sure be hunted by the people of Ethiopia and Tigray. They have hands that are soaked with blood and they will certainly pay for it.
by Amanuel Biedemariam